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☆ Stocks could have further to fall in May after this month’s market woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is down by more than 3% this month, though it has still registered a more than 6% advance for the year. But many investors worry stocks have further to go before finding a durable bottom. They say stocks look overvalued even after the recent pullback, and they cite troubling headwinds for equities. 'Sell in May and go away' May has a reputation as a historically weak month for stocks. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick noted that stocks have actually been higher in May during the last nine out of 10 years.

Persons: Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Jeff Hirsch, he's, It's, Hirsch, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, we've Organizations: Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury Bond ETF

☆ 'Sell in May and go away' is a catchy adage, but probably not a good idea
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's not just that it has been a down month (down 3.0% for the S & P 500, breaking a 5-month win streak). However, weaker does not mean down. The S & P, even in the weakest five months, was still up almost 2%. The bottom line: market timing is always a tricky affair. Many of these timing maxims could be trumped by an even better one: "It's time in the market that matters, not market timing."

Persons: It's, Nicholas Colas, Jeff Hirsch, it's Organizations: Dow, Stock Locations: It's, DataTrek

☆ First the Santa Claus Rally failed, now the First Five Days indicator is also negative
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Despite a huge rally Monday led by tech stocks that drove up the S & P 500 by 1.4%, a second seasonal indicator is flashing red. First the Santa Claus Rally failed. Now the First Five Days indicator is also negative. The S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the first five trading days of the year. The Santa Claus Rally and the First Five Days indicator have failed together 9 times since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's Organizations: Santa Claus, Stock

☆ The ‘Santa Claus rally’ is in trouble, and that may signal weaker stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Santa Claus rally is in trouble. With one day left in the trade, the S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 — less than 25% of the time. "That is 16 out of 16 years, which includes years with recessions, like 2020," Clifton notes. The outperformance is notable: The S & P tends to be stronger by 1.3% on average.

Persons: Santa Claus, Jeff Hirsch, Tom McClellan, Hirsch, Dan Clifton, Clifton, Biden, Jason Trennert, Strategas, There's Organizations: Santa, Treasury, Bloomberg Locations: Santa, Santa Claus, U.S, Strategas, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Tunisia

☆ Santa Claus rally period starts on Friday with an average gain of about 1% the next 7 trading days
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-22 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Friday is the official start of the Santa Claus rally. What the Santa Claus Rally is, and isn't Over the years, Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has repeatedly told me the key to understanding the Santa Claus rally is that it is not a trading strategy, it is an indicator. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 (less than 25% of the time). In the years when the Santa Claus period is negative, the S & P is up an average of only 5.0%, versus an average gain of 9.1% in all years. You can see this very clearly in this chart: The common explanation is that: 1) markets are stronger with a sitting president because a sitting President can pull levers to help the economy, and 2) markets tend to be weaker with no sitting president because of increased uncertainty around economic outcomes.

Persons: Santa Claus, Yale Hirsch, Ryan Detrick, I've, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Carson Group, Santa Locations: Santa

☆ Wall Street turns to Nvidia earnings in the week ahead as stocks try to keep their November momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.

Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan

☆ Something for the bulls: November is typically the best month for the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

November is typically an outperforming month for Wall Street, according to data from the "Stock Trader's Almanac." The benchmark S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each historically posted an average gain of 1.7% in November, dating back to 1950. Those moves make November the strongest month of the year for the S & P 500 and the second-best month for both the Nasdaq and the 30-stock Dow, according to the almanac. The S & P 500 has slipped roughly 3% so far and is on track for a third-straight month of declines . The string of monthly losses would mark the first such occurrence for the S & P 500 since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's, there's, We've, doesn't, we're, they're Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: lockstep

☆ The market has shaken off government shutdowns in the past. Here's what Wall Street expects
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A government shutdown looming on the horizon could dampen sentiment to start October even as Wall Street wraps up what's been a challenging month and quarter. Many market participants expect that the financial markets and economy will broadly shake off concerns from a shutdown as they have in the past. "The market's probably going to set it aside until or unless it starts to have a larger impact on behaviors." Economic impact Historically, government shutdowns have been relatively short-lived, though they have been longer and more disruptive recently. Meanwhile, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expects the government shutdown is "all bark and no bite" when it comes to market reaction.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Rob Haworth, Wells, Michael Pugliese, Bank's Haworth, Aditya Bhave, Jay Woods, Woods, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Lamb Weston Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Nasdaq, BEA, Bank of America U.S, Labor, Freedom Capital, Atlanta Fed's, PMI, Manufacturing, McCormick, ADP, Services PMI, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Consumer Credit Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur? What's the reasoning behind this classic seasonal trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For active traders who like to time buying and selling around seasonal events, the next few weeks are Market Timing Heaven. The volatility is encapsulated in one of the more enduring seasonal trades: Sell Rosh Hashanah (which begins at sundown Friday this year), buy Yom Kippur (Sept. 25). Traders sell positions due to seasonal weakness at the start of Rosh Hoshanah, then return to the market after Yom Kippur. The period from Yom Kippur to Passover, which starts on April 22, 2024, is traditionally an up period, good for an average gain of 6.9%. It means market timers expecting seasonal weakness for the next few weeks are also expecting seasonal strength in the fourth quarter.

Persons: Rosh Hoshanah, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Tom McClellan, McClellan, Todd Sohn Organizations: Triple, Triple Witching, Federal, Traders Locations: Yom, Rosh, Yom Kippur, Strategas

☆ Watch out: September's poor market track record is getting worse — especially for certain stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street is barreling toward what's historically been the worst month for stocks, according to CNBC PRO data. September is the weakest month for Apple, which dropped 2.82% on average, and Google-parent Alphabet, which fell an average 2.20%. For Amazon, September is the 11th weakest month, dropping 2.59%. And for Meta, it's the 10th worst month, as shares fall 1.96% on average. Meanwhile, September is historically the 9th worst month for this year's biggest AI beneficiary Nvidia, which is higher this year by nearly 200%.

Persons: Jeff Hirsch, it's, Almanac's Hirsch, Hirsch, Chris Hayes Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, that's, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia Locations: That's

☆ Transports and industrials are both breaking to new highs, a sign the rally is broadening out
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Dow theory: a primer The rules around the Dow Theory were formulated more than 120 years ago by Charles Dow himself (though he himself never used the term Dow Theory). "Dow Theory was formulated when the Dow Industrials were stuff makers, and the railroads were stuff movers," Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, told me. New Dow Theory also confirms a new high There have been attempts to formulate a "New Dow Theory." Tuesday, the S & P 500 closed at 4,554 (up 19% this year), and the Nasdaq closed at 14,354 (up 37% year-to-date). The S & P 500 is up 9% since May 1.

Persons: Dow, Charles Dow, Tom McClellan, McClellan, David Keller, Keller, hasn't, It's, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow Jones Transportation, Dow, Dow Theory, Dow Transports, Dow Railroads, FedEx, UPS, Nasdaq Locations: U.S, uptrends

☆ Good news for markets next week. Everyone agrees the debt ceiling 'X-date' is not here yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Good news for markets next week: no default, no credit agency downgrade, no apocalypse. Worrying 2011 precedent Recent history tells investors that stocks will move more violently during a debt ceiling standoff. Retail sales update Debt negotiations aside, investors get updates next week on the state of American consumer spending when April retail sales are reported Tuesday alongside earnings from Home Depot. Deutsche Bank estimates that April retail sales expanded month over month by 0.7%, the market consensus. Credit Suisse is less optimistic, forecasting that April retail sales grew by 0.6%, but, excluding vehicles, were unchanged.

There's an old Wall Street adage that urges investors to "sell in May and go away" — but CFRA Research says there's an even smarter way to play the market this spring. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac , the worst six months of the year for the S & P 500 starts in May and runs through October. The strategist says traders can look toward defensive names during the May slump, instead of entirely exiting the market. Indeed, since 1990, while the entire S & P 500 gained 6.7% annually, average price gains from equal exposure to these four sectors returned 9.0%. The stock almanac's editor, Jeff Hirsch, said that reducing long exposure and adopting a defensive stance will pay off for investors during the low period.

☆ Next week's stock market moves hinge on the longer-term outlook for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Next week's market action could be dictated by how well the latest quarterly reports from corporate America are received. Expectations about the immediate earnings outlook have been down for so long, the actual numbers themselves could look like up to investors. Earnings for all financials in the S & P 500 are actually expected to expand in the first quarter by 4.3%. ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: Charles Schwab, M & T Bank, State Street, J.B. Hunt Transport Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook Earnings: AT & T, American Express, D.R.

☆ S&P 500 and Nasdaq on pace to snap three-week win streaks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 and Nasdaq on pace to snap three-week win streaksDavid Harden, CEO and CIO of Summit Global Investments, and Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of Stock Trader's Almanac, join CNBC's "The Exchange" to break down Wednesday's market action.

One of the really interesting questions here – this will be fascinating – the core of linear TV is sports rights. When you look at the size and scope of the linear TV business, it's huge. Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty ImagesByron Allen, Entertainment Studios founder and CEO: I think linear TV will exist for a very, very long time. Simmons: I believe Apple, out of nowhere, will start making their own awesome televisions that have Apple TV embedded in them. We are witnessing early stages of this dynamic with deals like "NFL Sunday Ticket" on YouTube and the MLS deal with Apple TV.

☆ ChatGPT has gone viral. Now Wall Street is flocking to AI.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Today's newsletter covers everything you want to know about how the viral ChatGPT language tool is colliding with the world of Wall Street. Wall Street is clamoring to ride the ChatGPT wave, and investors are pouring into anything that has exposure to the budding artificial intelligence sector. A batch of obscure small-cap bot stocks have made sizable gains, and certain Chinese AI stocks have climbed 60% in a matter of weeks. The stock market just hit a rare trifecta of bullish indicators. The stock market rally will fade as the Fed combats inflation and a recession hits, according to a Credit Suisse strategist.

☆ Traders don't want to believe the Fed, so get used to a lot of choppiness
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Then Fed officials get on the tape say they're going to keep raising rates and keep them high until hell freezes over. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% and stay there for "a long time." Inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, but it's still high, and the Fed doesn't want to declare victory so they keep jawboning the markets down. The source of tension is that the trading community doesn't want to believe the Fed, and many are arguing the Fed is using stale data. "Wall Street does not believe the story being spun by the Fed," Harry Katica from Saut Strategy told his clients.

☆ Happy 50th anniversary to the discovery of the Santa Claus rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Happy 50th Anniversary to the discovery of the Santa Claus rally. It's that time of year again: the Santa Claus rally. Santa Claus rally: what it is The Santa Claus rally is a short rally that runs from the last five trading days of the year to the first two trading days of the New Year. According to one study, a Santa Claus rally has materialized in four out of every five years since 1950. His father, Yale Hirsch, a friend of mine for many years, discovered and named the Santa Claus rally in 1972.

☆ The election could be a big tailwind for stocks heading into the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The average annual return of the S & P 500 in the 12 months before a midterm election since 1962 is 0.3%, "significantly lower than the historical average of 8.1%," US Bancorp said in a recent note. In the 12-month period after a midterm election, the S & P is up an average of 16.3%. The outperformance was especially notable in the period three months and six months after the election, when the S & P was up 7.3% and 15.1% on average. Most attribute the reason for underperformance to policy uncertainty — investors do not know which political party will hold a majority in Congress, which resolves after the midterm election. The S & P was higher 88.9% of the time.

☆ How Bryan Lourd became one of the most powerful people in the history of Hollywood
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-25 | by ( Alex Sherman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +18 min

Lourd, 61, isn't a household name, but he wields a stunning amount of influence in Hollywood. Lourd's Hollywood clients aren't just A-listers, they're A+-listers: Brad Pitt. An old-fashioned talent agent who loves discussing old movies and doesn't mind pointing out the flaws in his own clients' work, Lourd has become arguably the most powerful person in Hollywood. "He's one of the most powerful people in the history of Hollywood," said Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos. But Lourd's clients are such bankable stars that it's equally important for Hollywood executives to be friendly with him as it is beneficial for Lourd and CAA.

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